Hi Guys,

Let's go with the premise that 4E will be a big flop for WOC.  That begs the question: "What will the industy look like in 5 years?"  Will WOC continue it's march towards a table top "computer" like RPG or will it change direction?

Also, if we  go with the premise that 4E will be a flop "What will Gencon 2013 look like?

Perhaps you think that 4E will not flop.  Discuss.

Martin

By 2013 we'll be trading woodgrains for food (or is it the other way around?).

I can't wait to see WoTC sell it off.  WE should pass the hat, pool our funds, and purchase the rights together.  

bombadil wrote:WE should pass the hat, pool our funds, and purchase the rights together.  

I'm in!

From what scuttlebutt I've heard: the initial release more than met (even WotC's) expectations, but continued sales haven't been as good as some (especially store owners) had hoped.

Granted, the biggest problem with relying on store-owners is for these sorts of things is that a lot of their traditional business has transferred to Amazon and the like.

g026r wrote:From what scuttlebutt I've heard: the initial release more than met (even WotC's) expectations, but continued sales haven't been as good as some (especially store owners) had hoped.

Granted, the biggest problem with relying on store-owners is for these sorts of things is that a lot of their traditional business has transferred to Amazon and the like.

In good economic times it can be hard to justify full MSRP on RPGs... in the climate we're going to see for the foreseeable future? Sorry FLGS, I can't justify spending 34% more to buy from you.

WotC will not close shop until M:tG dies. And despite all the bad press D&D has given itself since the announcement of 4e, most gamers I know have tried it, and the vast majority have made the switch. The only instances I've heard of 3.5 being played is for a specific setting (i.e. Midnight) that isn't available (and will never be) in 4e.

FWIW I'd be excited if Paizo got the license, but as noted above, Hasbro would sit on it unless they got an insane amount of money for it.

Remember that there was a D&D MMORPG already and it was uninspiring.  

Anyways, I personally enjoy playing 4e and if it brings in a new generation of player- I am all for it.

I would like to see Hasbro let D&D go and would not mind Paizo picking it up.

benjoshua wrote:D&D just keeps hanging on. I think 4E will last at least five years, but I'm not sure about after that.  It's possible that 4.5 or 5E    will be in the works by then.  The game will keep evolving.  This is just a guess.

For me, the real concern is ten years from now.  Face it, most of us die hards will start fading in ten to fifteen years especially now that Tams are available at Super Targets.   I am not as confident that younger generations will be as loyal to D&D and collecting or playing.  There are so many more kinds of games than there were when we were teenagers.  I hope I am wrong.  

D&D will either adapt by moving online or being played on personal computers in lieu of face to face; or it will continue to fracture as years go by (you'll have players of OD&D, 1E, 2E, 3/3.5E, 4/4.5E, etc) into groups of polarized grumpy old men championing "their" edition of the game over all others.  Still, the total fan base will remain loyal and if the Big Guys are smart they will one day begin licensing the different editions and making some money there.  

The great thing is that with online publishing, a much smaller fan base can be catered to without having to print the huge numbers of books that typically make a game successful.  This tells me we'll be seeing "new" AD&D adventures being published even ten years from now.

Mike B.

I believe that paper RPGs will become a wide-reaching cottage industry, with lots of little companies filling in specialized niches and the prime product (D&D5.314++ revised V2.35) being seen more as a common ground of errors to be corrected by more passionate minor parties.

It will be similar to the age of fanzines and 500-print run D&D imitators in the 70s, but much more pervasive.  User-created alternatives like OSRIC, Basic Fantasy, etc. will come to the forefront and be widely communicated, with many player-producers creating product without a profit motive.  "Star authors" will focus more on their name recognition and e-fame as a hobby while keeping their day jobs.

Every once in awhile you'll get a Paizo or someone producing an alternate system that will achieve a respectable audience, but will never reach critical mass.  This is because it is virtually impossible for any paper RPG to supersede the existing version of Dungeons & Dragons due to a lack of market share and intellectual buy-in from long-term players.

In a perfect world, this would lead to a thriving, diverse community where edition and game system become irrelevant, because there are too many system flavors.  People would focus on quality fluff vs. crunch, with world books, bestiaries, story-driven adventures and thematic rules-light sub-systems (for, say, wilderness adventuring) that would be simple enough to cross genres with ease.

But I doubt that's going to happen.  It's the 21st century and it's a numbers game.

Professionally, Warcraft and MMOs are going to kill paper RPGs.  Not immediately, but as we die (sorry, morbid reality), our numbers will dwindle down to those we taught and a few nostalgia lovers.  Paper RPGs will become an eccentric historical curiosity.  That's fine, but it will get to the point where you have 1 paper RPG game master and his 3 players for every 1,000 MMO players.  Over time, people who have a vested love of the hobby as it is will die off and no one will see a monetary incentive to publish in the then fan-exclusive hobby industry of RPGs.

OK, I'm ready to answer the topic now.


In 5 years, there will be one or more small-audience MMOs that focus on a shared world with developer-driven quality control, and user-generated content.  That might be hard to envision, so let's try this.

Ever play Neverwinter Nights?  D&D fascimile on a computer, with limited online outreach and user-designed dungeons?  Think of that on an MMO level.  You log in, explore the world and find designer refined and approved plots of land created by different players.  Basically, a mixture of Second Life, WoW, Neverwinter Nights and (shiver) D&D Online.

That's 5 years.  10-25 years, you'll see businessmen beginning to smack their heads as they realize that their users are willing to work for free, producing content for review, and the designers can focus on guidance and oversight instead of active content generation, just developing the guidelines and toolsets for user-creators.

Some time after that you'll finally have the big, huge world-changing game that everyone plays.  The "Facebook" of 2050 will be an online game where you build your own house and invite people over to have a party.  Our subset of that will be a dungeon designed by you that you dwell in as "lord," and other players can ally with you, invade and try to take over, or just tour and offer design advice.

That game will have to be something universally approachable - like the Sims, but with a built-in market that can be installed with an easy interface to work with.  Of existing properties, I'm thinking Pokemon, Harry Potter, etc.  But most likely it will be something entirely new.

Feel free to bookmark this post for later perusal (or laughter), and apologies that you hit on one of my personal conceptualization playgrounds.

Mars wrote:  

I am a bit doubtful on this premise.  I thought the initial sales numbers on 4E were actually very good.  It does seem as if they have been more conservative on releasing products than they were for 3E.

I think 4e is a good game that is fun. But... it doesn't have long legs. It emphasis on exception based rules means that as far as the rules goes the possibilities are quickly exhausted. So after several campaign combat encounter will start to feel mind numbing the same. This is similar to the problem that individual MMORPGs face with long term players.

This problem compounded by the fact that outside of combat D&D is very rules lite. Now that could work in the game's favor IF they pushed an approach similar to that of OD&D where actual play is the result of the referee judging the player's action.

The skill challenge system is meant to provide a framework for this type of play and the DMG talks bout it extensively. But... everything they publish ignore this type of play. Instead they focus on providing interesting scenarios (combat and non-combat).

My opinion because of these issues although fun and well put together D&D 4th doesn't have "long legs" compared to other RPGs. The reason that other RPGs have longer legs is either the referee has a larger role in coming with rulings for crazy actions or the mechanics of the game are such that they can be easily applied to handle the crazy things PCs try to do.

D&D 4th CAN use these approaches but the MARKETING of the game negate this.

The lack of long legs I predict will cause D&D 4th sale to tail off to a level below that of 3rd and then remain level as the fan base at that point will be consist of those willing to buy the subsequent books in the series. Because the add-on books feature new powers calling for new tactics this will keep interest up among the diminished fan base. The relative freedom of table top vs MMORPGS will attract enough new players to keep the population of the fan base steady.

The prime purpose of 4e to attract a whole new fan base. One that is comprised of players who grew up on MMORPGs and Computer RPGs. The pattern may be that 4e falls to a lower level then steadily grows again as it attracts new players. I don't view this as likely due to the price of the books.

I will say the wild card is the successful implementation of a Virtual Table Top NOT a MMORPG. The BIG problem of gaming right now is that the collapse of the table-top is shrinking opportunities for play for people in rural or small towns.

A Virtual Table top application like Fantasy Grounds nearly faithfully replicates sitting around the table. Of course it not 100% the same but it so close that it is a effective substitute for when a group can't meet any other way.

A VTT can really save gaming if there is a easy to use application that has a large player base behind. Wizard plan's for a 4e VTT fits perfectly. If they had when 4e was released I would say it popularity would be a lot larger than it is now.  But they fumbled that ball.

If they are able to recover and get a quality application out then it could be a game changer. Because one of the biggest problem of today's market, finding people to play with, will be effectively eliminated.

Also it has the potential to greatly ease play by having tools that make prep time way father. For example a character builder that directly imports into the VTT.  Or elaborate floorplan that are easily created and presented.

If this prove to be a commercial success then it could benefit all of us by causing people to jump in and give VTT support for games we like along with a pool of people to play with. It will also be a viable alternative to MMORPGs. VTTs won't rival the MMORPG market but I believe it will turn table top RPGs is a solid secondary market for people wanting more creativity in play.