Do you try to predict top bids on Ebay? • Collecting General • The Acaeum

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Do you try to predict top bids on Ebay?
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nevcoup
Prolific Collector

Posts: 125
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Last Visit: Jul 08, 2023
Location: Tacoma

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:30 pm

This is a question for sellers and buyers, but I am mostly looking for answers from sellers.

When you place an interesting item or lot up for auction on Ebay do you have a "homespun" (or better) way of predicting the final bid based on earlier bids. For example, I have been pretty good at guessing final bids with 24 hours left based on number of viewers, watchers, and unique bidders.

Maybe 24 hours isn't all that impressive for an estimate, but I was just wondering if any of you have noticed patterns or tendencies.

Obviously, I'm referring to items or lots that could produce a wide range of final bids.

Any thoughts, theories, or "poo-poos" on my presumption of a theory?

nevcoup
Prolific Collector

Posts: 125
Joined: Jan 05, 2007
Last Visit: Jul 08, 2023
Location: Tacoma

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:49 pm

For example (and I AM aware that there is a confirmation bias in action here):

I assume that at least 1/3 of watchers will make a bid. So I can subtract the number of unique bidders from 1/3 the watchers and get a decent guess at the number of final unique bidders. If it is a larger auction I add 1 or 2 (mostly guesswork) unique bidders who have not been on my radar.

Although most "action" occurs in the final few seconds, the bid at "1 day left" is a good indicator if the auction will soar in those last few minutes. If the bid was good, with decent # of watchers at 1 day, then I assume that the bid at 2 hours to go will double by final bid. If the bidders/watchers ratio is strongly in my favor by the 1 day left, I predict 4 times the bid at 2 hours to go.

Other things I watch (assuming I may just be superstitious

)

If my top two bidders are relatively new (under 10 feedback) I "fudge-up" my estimate by 20% :twisted:

If my item/lot has a number of known Acaeum bidders involved without Ebay newbies, I assume that I will get a solid and nice Acaeum bid +/- 20%.

If my item/lot has a number of Acaeum bidders plus newbies, then the sky is the limit :wink:

And, finally, for single, common items I can simply assume a fair Acaeum price (THANK you Acaeum!!!!

).

It is the lots that are a real wild ride

Again, I already know these homespun ideas aren't much, but I just thought many of you watched and predicted your own auctions (I know I am right

gyg
Verbose Collector

Posts: 1945
Joined: Mar 26, 2004
Last Visit: Jul 17, 2026
Location: UK

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:51 pm

The top bid on most any auction I am interested can be found by doing the following equation -

(My bid) + (1 bid increment) = Final price

Live and don't learn, that's my motto :lol:

You can never have too much of something you didn't need in the first place.

nevcoup
Prolific Collector

Posts: 125
Joined: Jan 05, 2007
Last Visit: Jul 08, 2023
Location: Tacoma

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:17 pm

My rule:

If Finnedrale (or however you spell it) or ABCDEX are bidding, then I just back away slowly and never look at the auction again. :cry:

Nice equation, though!

copycat
Sage Collector

Posts: 2736
Joined: May 31, 2007
Last Visit: Jul 09, 2026

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:22 pm

I do it this way:

Do I want the item? Yes... bid in the last hour. If it goes over my bid, oh well. Wasn't worth (to me) more than I'd have spent. Assuming the start wasn't already over what I wanted to spend anyway.

Do I not want the item? Yes... ignore it.

I don't care what other people will bid on an item... I only need to concern myself with what I will spend.

Those who can, don't. Those who should not, do.

nevcoup
Prolific Collector

Posts: 125
Joined: Jan 05, 2007
Last Visit: Jul 08, 2023
Location: Tacoma

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:25 pm

"I want you to want my item" (hum to the tune of Cheap Trick's classic "I want you to want me")

bclarkie
Grandstanding Collector
Acaeum Donor

Posts: 6600
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Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:58 pm

I usually do not list large lots, unless its "garbage lots', or in other words incomplete and really worn items. I typicallly like to list multiple auctions of individual items, but in my experience my auctions usually double in total amount over the last 24 hours, give or take a little. Effectively for me that means if I have 40 7-day auctions running through Sunday(thats the day I usually list) if the total at the 24 hour mark is say $300, I usually expect to get somewhere in the realm of $600 by the end of my auctions. Sometimes its a bit more, sometimes a bit less, but on average its about double.

"He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." -Neitzche

copycat
Sage Collector

Posts: 2736
Joined: May 31, 2007
Last Visit: Jul 09, 2026

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:00 pm

You're welcome.

Those who can, don't. Those who should not, do.

Guido-the-Gypsy
Prolific Collector

Posts: 130
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Last Visit: Mar 31, 2018
Location: Minneapolis

Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:53 am

bclarkie wrote:I usually do not list large lots, unless its "garbage lots', or in other words incomplete and really worn items. I typicallly like to list multiple auctions of individual items, but in my experience my auctions usually double in total amount over the last 24 hours, give or take a little. Effectively for me that means if I have 40 7-day auctions running through Sunday(thats the day I usually list) if the total at the 24 hour mark is say $300, I usually expect to get somewhere in the realm of $600 by the end of my auctions. Sometimes its a bit more, sometimes a bit less, but on average its about double.

This is exactly what I have seen too. Over the weekend, I had 150 items up and bids at $332 on Saturday night. At the close, I had a total of $678. Also, I noticed that the more common the items, the more likely the bids will come in over the last 24 hours (makes sense).

I have been tracking this "unscientifically" for about 2 years. Only during the Christmas holiday did it dramatically waiver.

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