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The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum
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Post Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:17 am 
 

Current Acaeum value for a Dragon #1 in VF condition = $333.00



** expired/removed eBay auction **


Noble Knight listing for Dragon #1.  Condition is listed as "used", but that condition status doesn't appear as a part of their official grading system.  Anywho, price is $895.00 BIN.


** expired/removed eBay auction **


Seller of this Dragon #1 actually posts photos of the magazine he/she is selling.  Seller rates it as EX- (I assume that's excellent-).  BIN of $475.00 with a "Make Offer" option.  Funny thing, is this seller actually refers to the Noble Knight auction. "I'm not a professional grader, but I would rate it an EX- which is better than the Noble Knight copy selling for $900."



** expired/removed eBay auction **

This one sold for $385.00 on 13 Oct 15 (seller lists it as very good condition).



** expired/removed eBay auction **

And this one possibly sold for $250.00 on 28 Sept 15 (seller states, "The front and back cover are not in perfect shape but the pages within are excellent with the exception of some small wrinkling of the bottom corners.).



Anyone else think Noble Knight's prices are artificially inflating values in the collector's market?



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Post Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:47 am 
 

Who knows if they expect to get that price... Could just be posted as a legit rare that attracts attention to the site (well, it just did anyway). And I'd expect like anything, a reasonable offer would be considered. And then was it the Amazon sellers who post a huge asking price without having the item with the intention of buying one in case someone bites. Or maybe it's consigned and that's the owners price. Or even out of stock and it's easier to keep the listing up at an unsaleable price than cancel/relist when they get one.


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Post Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:33 pm 
 

muaddib5 wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:Anyone else think Noble Knight's prices are artificially inflating values in the collector's market?



Yeah, absolutely

  

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Post Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:23 pm 
 

Thunderdave wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:Could just be posted as a legit rare that attracts attention to the site (well, it just did anyway).


This is something I theorized back on August 6th of 2014 in another thread:

benjoshua wrote in A new online OOP RPG store:One more thing to consider.  I have often shook my head at the ridiculous prices offered by Noble Knight, and some other sellers, especially on most of their super-rare items.  However, I now wonder whether their approach is not only not insane, but may, if fact, be purposeful and helpful overall to their bottom line.  Here's what might be going on.

I wonder if the price their highly rare items at ridiculous prices serve as bait or window dressing.  Many buyers hear about Orange B3's, woodgrain box sets, or other rarities and search for sellers on the internet with those items.  And since sellers like Noble Knight have these kinds of items in stock, potential buyers visit their web-site.  It can become a win-win situation.  If the buyer actually buys the item, the seller made a killer profit.  If the buyer doesn't buy the item, I suspect many buyers look for something else they can afford and when common items appear at more reasonable prices, then the contrast could lead them to buy one or more cheaper/common selections.  I realize that approach would probably not work well with this more discriminating crowd, but for many buyers, it could serve as an effective business model.  And it's not the kind of thing they'd ever confess.  They just laugh at all the criticism as the money rolls in.


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Post Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:19 pm 
 

muaddib5 wrote:Anyone else think Noble Knight's prices are artificially inflating values in the collector's market?

Items are offered for sale at retail (including brick 'n' mortar, payroll, and web overhead)...
Items are purchased and delivered entirely satisfactorily...
Free Market commerce, seems to me.

Thus, I take issue with the word "artificially".

Yes, high prices from certain comprehensive sources (NK, T&T, some very few others) are affecting the collectibles market.
Praps by broadening the number of dilettante collectors? (folks with one or two RealCool/tm items frex)

F

  

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Post Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:42 pm 
 

That price is completely in line with NKG's normal pricing of about 2-4x what one can find things for elsewhere. Why this continues to be news is beyond me. They have costs which need to be covered, and private sellers don't, so they charge more. A used car would cost more from a dealer than a private seller. This is normal.


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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:59 am 
 

ExTSR wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:
muaddib5 wrote:Anyone else think Noble Knight's prices are artificially inflating values in the collector's market?

Items are offered for sale at retail (including brick 'n' mortar, payroll, and web overhead)...
Items are purchased and delivered entirely satisfactorily...
Free Market commerce, seems to me.

Thus, I take issue with the word "artificially".

Yes, high prices from certain comprehensive sources (NK, T&T, some very few others) are affecting the collectibles market.
Praps by broadening the number of dilettante collectors? (folks with one or two RealCool/tm items frex)

F


By "artificially" I meant that NK is listing what most of us would call overpriced collectibles.  Some eBay sellers are using NK's current listings as reference for setting auction/BIN values instead of doing a little research and educating themselves to what the current valuation might be.

I sat through many of your wonderful auctions at Gen Con here in Wisconsin and I learned the true value of an item is what someone will pay for it.  The Free Market will regulate itself as a customer won't buy an overpriced item.

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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:03 am 
 

TheHistorian wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:That price is completely in line with NKG's normal pricing of about 2-4x what one can find things for elsewhere. Why this continues to be news is beyond me. They have costs which need to be covered, and private sellers don't, so they charge more. A used car would cost more from a dealer than a private seller. This is normal.


Not so much "continuing to be news" as pointing out that over pricing appears to be having an effect on overall valuations.  Thanks for your input!

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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:17 am 
 

First I think we have to ask the question, is it even possible to artificially inflate these values?

I'd say no, not on your own.  You'd need to collude with a majority of other sellers of the same item and convince them to list at the same inflated price in order to accomplish this.

And even then I think you could only really do this on an item that is so rare and ardently sought after that collectors would be willing to pay that fixed high price no matter what.

In the cut throat free market private collecting world where prices are driven by what buyers are willing to pay, I believe this would be almost impossible, especially in the age of Ebay.


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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:56 pm 
 

Agent Cooper wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:First I think we have to ask the question, is it even possible to artificially inflate these values?

I'd say no, not on your own.  You'd need to collude with a majority of other sellers of the same item and convince them to list at the same inflated price in order to accomplish this.

And even then I think you could only really do this on an item that is so rare and ardently sought after that collectors would be willing to pay that fixed high price no matter what.

In the cut throat free market private collecting world where prices are driven by what buyers are willing to pay, I believe this would be almost impossible, especially in the age of Ebay.


I guess I was dismayed to see another eBay seller referring to a NK auction to possibly get a starting bid/BIN price.  

I did contact the seller and he says that yes, NK is overpriced but he's never seen a "NM copy sell for 300."  The seller states he's been collecting for years and has multiple copies of Dragon #1 and thinks his is fairly priced due to the condition and scarcity.  I've been watching the listing and no one has bit at the $475.00 BIN.

So maybe this is a non-issue.  I just put it out there to see what other opinions were.

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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:40 pm 
 

muaddib5 wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:The seller states he's been collecting for years and has multiple copies of Dragon #1 and thinks his is fairly priced due to the condition and scarcity.  I've been watching the listing and no one has bit at the $475.00 BIN.

Not sure what grading they're using (baseball cards to yield a 50% valuation for EX? *jk*) but at least they have a narrative which you don't get with NKG's copy.
A "touch of spine roll. Spine creases are very small. There is some slight yellowing/dirtiness of the front cover and tiny bend (not crease) of the lower right corner" and "the small dot stain" do add up but under ideal circumstances might still lead one to better expectations than shown in the picture; the thumb-creasing down the right is obvious as is the yellowing there and to the spine. Add to that the general surface rubbing as you would expect from a read copy and spine creasing which is more extensive than might appear at first glance because the cover color is light and that's concentrated in the same middle section where it doesn't catch the eye so badly.
I'm not a comic grader, but I could imagine they'd have a field day with this and end up with no better than a 6.5-7.0 or thereabouts?

The "really nice shape" copy which was sold for $250 is so horrendously dirty I'm surprised no-one commented on that, the chipping, or the extensive creasing; the vertical crease from having been folded in two and pressed is actually one of the lesser of those.

Complaints about price inflation from NKG (and their prices for OOP stock aren't always hideous) should probably also be joined by complaints about grade inflation IMHO and even using an old quick-and-nasty ref. scan with borked colors from reflection/glimmer, a "really nice copy" should probably look something more like;
Image

Or so you might've hoped...


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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:33 pm 
 

muaddib5 wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:
TheHistorian wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:That price is completely in line with NKG's normal pricing of about 2-4x what one can find things for elsewhere. Why this continues to be news is beyond me. They have costs which need to be covered, and private sellers don't, so they charge more. A used car would cost more from a dealer than a private seller. This is normal.


Not so much "continuing to be news" as pointing out that over pricing appears to be having an effect on overall valuations.  Thanks for your input!

muaddib5


Pricing is valuation - selling price, that is.  NK is expensive, but I doubt they are listing at their price level just to mock us - that 2-4x level clearly works for them, meaning they must be selling an acceptable volume of products at that high end to keep them in business.  For the $475 BIN in question, well, if no one bites, he will have to reevaluate and drop his price. If it sells at $475, then that is a data point towards a "true" value. Perhaps that is too much for a more educated or patient buyer, but in the end the market will set the value.

  

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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:56 pm 
 

Grug Greyskin wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:
muaddib5 wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:
Not so much "continuing to be news" as pointing out that over pricing appears to be having an effect on overall valuations.  Thanks for your input!

muaddib5


Pricing is valuation - selling price, that is.  NK is expensive, but I doubt they are listing at their price level just to mock us - that 2-4x level clearly works for them, meaning they must be selling an acceptable volume of products at that high end to keep them in business.  For the $475 BIN in question, well, if no one bites, he will have to reevaluate and drop his price. If it sells at $475, then that is a data point towards a "true" value. Perhaps that is too much for a more educated or patient buyer, but in the end the market will set the value.


I haven't taken economics in awhile, but price is subjective.  I can assign any price I want to my Dragon #1.  The Dragon #1 is only actually worth what a buyer will pay for it.  So yes, the market will set the value.

I've never visited the NK store (I believe it's in Janesville, WI).  So I'm not sure how successful or not NK actually is, this was more about other eBay seller's using NK auction/BIN prices as references.

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Last edited by muaddib5 on Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:52 pm 
 

My observation was that they generally seem to fall in the 2-4x range for MOST things I've bothered to look at. Not new items, of course. So this seemed to be in that rough range and was thus unremarkable to me.

If the original suggestion was that NKG (or anyone else's) high prices draw the average price up... I suppose it's possible as an unintended side effect, but there are plenty of people charging "too much" on ebay, amazon, etc. and that stuff often just sits. NKG are a (the?) major dealer, but even still, they rarely have anything THAT rare, at least by the standards of the Acaeum, so there are other options to buy things, and thus the influence of their pricing, intended or not, would seem to be limited.

Also, as far as condition... there are certainly some folks here who care, but the vast majority of RPG buyers (even collectors) don't care that much. Nowhere near the detail that comics collectors (which is what Mike(?) based the original scale on) will go into describing the minutiae of defects. In my experience, the grades could really be Shrink / Mint / Average / Non-collectable and that would be sufficient for most transactions. The point being, there is a huge range before any premium for condition gets added on. And the Acaeum valuations, while a great starting point, just can't keep up with actual sales for some things. Even if they could, it only takes a couple of determined buyers to cause it to be thrown out the window for any particular auction.


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Post Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:48 am 
 

TheHistorian wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:My observation was that they generally seem to fall in the 2-4x range for MOST things I've bothered to look at. Not new items, of course. So this seemed to be in that rough range and was thus unremarkable to me.

If the original suggestion was that NKG (or anyone else's) high prices draw the average price up... I suppose it's possible as an unintended side effect, but there are plenty of people charging "too much" on ebay, amazon, etc. and that stuff often just sits. NKG are a (the?) major dealer, but even still, they rarely have anything THAT rare, at least by the standards of the Acaeum, so there are other options to buy things, and thus the influence of their pricing, intended or not, would seem to be limited.

Also, as far as condition... there are certainly some folks here who care, but the vast majority of RPG buyers (even collectors) don't care that much. Nowhere near the detail that comics collectors (which is what Mike(?) based the original scale on) will go into describing the minutiae of defects. In my experience, the grades could really be Shrink / Mint / Average / Non-collectable and that would be sufficient for most transactions. The point being, there is a huge range before any premium for condition gets added on. And the Acaeum valuations, while a great starting point, just can't keep up with actual sales for some things. Even if they could, it only takes a couple of determined buyers to cause it to be thrown out the window for any particular auction.


You bring up some interesting points.  I'd have to disagree with "but the vast majority of RPG buyers (even collectors) don't care that much" (about condition).  Everyone purchases items, or multiples of items, for different reasons.  Is it a playing copy (not so picky about condition), is it an entry level collecting copy (more picky about condition but I'll replace it with a better condition copy for the collection sometime in the future), is it the "pristine" collector copy that's going under glass in my roleplaying museum.  If it's in the last group, then I'm VERY concerned about condition, completeness, possibly provenance if it's a super rare item, etc.

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Post Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:23 pm 
 

Ah, my fine desert rodent, you have struck the metal fastening pin upon the cranium. At the end of the day, everyone buys what they want for the reasons they want. His copy will likely sit there for the conceivable future. However, by posting it at that price, he draws the uninformed in by the "wow look at that" factor, which likely causes many of them to look at his other, DECENTLY priced items. IMO he is a VERY good businessman.
In the very near future I will be down to a stack of books the height of my 4 year old; my collecting days are done. I have owned some amazing stuff, some literally unique, and I have passed them on to others at what I hope were fair prices. I was never very concerned about the money and/or condition aspect. Some collectors are, and if they are willing to pay what we consider inflated prices, that is their right. In the VERY old days, we did a lot of trading, and value wasn't as much of a factor, but along came eBay and all of that changed. NK knows exactly what he is doing; if he didn't, he'd have been gone long ago.


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Post Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:05 am 
 

Deadlord wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:Ah, my fine desert rodent, you have struck the metal fastening pin upon the cranium. At the end of the day, everyone buys what they want for the reasons they want. His copy will likely sit there for the conceivable future. However, by posting it at that price, he draws the uninformed in by the "wow look at that" factor, which likely causes many of them to look at his other, DECENTLY priced items. IMO he is a VERY good businessman.
In the very near future I will be down to a stack of books the height of my 4 year old; my collecting days are done. I have owned some amazing stuff, some literally unique, and I have passed them on to others at what I hope were fair prices. I was never very concerned about the money and/or condition aspect. Some collectors are, and if they are willing to pay what we consider inflated prices, that is their right. In the VERY old days, we did a lot of trading, and value wasn't as much of a factor, but along came eBay and all of that changed. NK knows exactly what he is doing; if he didn't, he'd have been gone long ago.


I'm not sure "VERY good businessman" is the first term that comes to mind when most think of NK  :roll:

Whatever floats your boat I guess, like the BIN listing for Dragon #2 at $395 that was just posted.  Out of 96,887 listings, the first 10 pages are items at or above $195.00.  

To me, this sounds more like the hedge fund manager who raised the $13.50 per pill medication to $750.00 per pill overnight than a "shrewd" business stragety.  But that's just me.

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Post Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:47 pm 
 

muaddib5 wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:
Deadlord wrote in The Noble Knight Dragon #1 Conundrum:Ah, my fine desert rodent, you have struck the metal fastening pin upon the cranium. At the end of the day, everyone buys what they want for the reasons they want. His copy will likely sit there for the conceivable future. However, by posting it at that price, he draws the uninformed in by the "wow look at that" factor, which likely causes many of them to look at his other, DECENTLY priced items. IMO he is a VERY good businessman.
In the very near future I will be down to a stack of books the height of my 4 year old; my collecting days are done. I have owned some amazing stuff, some literally unique, and I have passed them on to others at what I hope were fair prices. I was never very concerned about the money and/or condition aspect. Some collectors are, and if they are willing to pay what we consider inflated prices, that is their right. In the VERY old days, we did a lot of trading, and value wasn't as much of a factor, but along came eBay and all of that changed. NK knows exactly what he is doing; if he didn't, he'd have been gone long ago.


I'm not sure "VERY good businessman" is the first term that comes to mind when most think of NK  :roll:

Whatever floats your boat I guess, like the BIN listing for Dragon #2 at $395 that was just posted.  Out of 96,887 listings, the first 10 pages are items at or above $195.00.  

To me, this sounds more like the hedge fund manager who raised the $13.50 per pill medication to $750.00 per pill overnight than a "shrewd" business stragety.  But that's just me.

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muaddib5


True,

But if you did go to Aaron's brick-and-mortar location in Janesville, I'm sure you could a much-discounted price than what he sells it on Ebay for.


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