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I'm confused as to how value is determined...
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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 2:25 pm 
 

I'm looking at the Rare index and as of this moment, the OD&D woodgrain 1st print's estimated value dropped down a whopping 37%. It was sitting pretty at $4995 for a NM very recently but dropped to a lower (though still lofty) $3124. Was there an auction for it that sold at a lower price that I missed?

I read the FAQ for how value is determined and I'm embarrassed to admit that I still don't have a clear understanding of it. Particularly on the price drop that I just witnessed.

  

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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 3:27 pm 
 

I don't recall recent 1st Chainmails being particularly weak, either - the recent auctions leading up to the previous value a few months ago, rather than a large number of high quality copies well under $1,000 which should(?) have been required to plunge the valuation the other way? :?:
($1,813 down to $1,131 for theoretical (never seen) NM)

And I was more-or-less happy about the previous update, bar a few presumed-missed auctions and suchlike. :)


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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 3:38 pm 
 

(aside: Has the Wayback Machine missed an iteration; e.g. the D&D Rules Cyclopedia going from $30 this March, to $83(!) now, but that's actually showing as "-2%"??).


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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 6:35 pm 
 

The price drop was a mistake.  Rather, an error in the code that was used to arrive at the values.  I've been aware of it, but haven't had the time to fix it -- hopefully in about two weeks, I will.

Foul

  


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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 8:56 pm 
 

faro wrote in I'm confused as to how value is determined...:I don't recall recent 1st Chainmails being particularly weak, either - the recent auctions leading up to the previous value a few months ago, rather than a large number of high quality copies well under $1,000 which should(?) have been required to plunge the valuation the other way? :?:
($1,813 down to $1,131 for theoretical (never seen) NM)

And I was more-or-less happy about the previous update, bar a few presumed-missed auctions and suchlike. :)


I thought I had mentioned a few times that I have a mint condition 1st print Chainmail. Many Acaeumites have seen it (some many times). I brought it to North Texas last year, but it might have been overlooked.


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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 9:40 pm 
 

Theoretical = none on my list of eBay sales*, IIRC, that would've gone into the estimated valuation number-crunching. i.e. That NM valuation is a theoretical value derived from the lower graded sales...

(*Either that or I'm a much harsher grader than most. :))


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Post Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 10:00 pm 
 

FoulFoot wrote in I'm confused as to how value is determined...:The price drop was a mistake.  Rather, an error in the code that was used to arrive at the values.  I've been aware of it, but haven't had the time to fix it -- hopefully in about two weeks, I will.

Foul


Oh I see. Thanks for clearing that up kind sir!

I was just puzzled at that because I always saw that item as the Action Comics #1 or the T206 Honus Wagner (albeit at a much lesser extent current value-wise) of this particular hobby. Though I do realize it's not the most expensive or rarest of RPG items. It's just that it's significance is such that I can't imagine it's value going down any time soon.

  


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:10 pm 
 

The values continue to decrease.  :lol:

I don't own any of those rare items, so I don't care as much as one would initially assume. As stated in the Random thoughts thread, I am currently content with my white box and OD&D reprint.  :D

  

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Post Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:20 pm 
 

Haven't had time to implement fixes, so I wouldn't pay attention to the Indexes right now.  (My free-time situation has gotten worse, not better).  I'll post here when it's corrected.

Foul

  

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Post Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:02 am 
 

Alrighty, the problem with the calculation software has (hopefully) been sorted.  Corrected values have been posted to the Indexes, and all should be fine now.  Note that some of the wild price swings (the up/down percentages) are due to the difference between the corrected value and the old, incorrect value.  The percentages will normalize next month.

Also, you'll notice a change to the Value Updated column on the Indexes; the month has been added to the year for when an item's value was last updated.  If there are no new auctions to factor into a valuation, the Value Updated column won't update.  I set the last-updated time to Jun 2015 as a baseline for all items, with the exception of a few that I used for testing (and which are showing Jul 2015).  It may take a month or two for certain auctions to factor into an item's value; the Valuation Board member responsible for that item needs to actually grade and enter the data into the system in order for it to be computed.  The system then calculates and updates values on the 10th day of each month.

Regards,

Foul

  

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Post Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:26 pm 
 

Well then, looks like I'd better put my minty Rules Cyclopedia (that I got for $25) on Ebay right now while it's still worth 80 bucks!!

:P


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Post Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:10 pm 
 

Those have gone up considerably in the last few years.

  

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Post Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:50 am 
 

dbartman wrote in I'm confused as to how value is determined...:Those have gone up considerably in the last few years.


Wow, they really have, haven't they?  I was making a little joke about the valuation glitch but yeah, I just took a quick look around the interwebs and I see that it's not that far off.

Now I wish I'd bought a few more of them back when they were $25 ~!

I just have the one and it's in really great condition.  I'd hate to part with it.


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