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Sardan
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Posted: Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:46 pm

mbassoc2003 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Not at all.

Inflation is the increase in currency supply.
The cause of inflation is central government currency printing
The symptom of inflation is an increase in the apparent cost of real goods, which is the consequence of the loss of in value of the currency.

The big lie that the uneducated repeat to one another for solace is that the symptom is actually the cause, and the cause is the solution, and in doing so they can continue to keep their heads in the sand until they their children are starving. And then as if by magic they switch their brains back on.

Well there are multiple causes of inflation. Loose monetary policy through quantitative easing and low interest rates undoubtedly has caused asset inflation.

But a lot of the current issues we are seeing are caused by supply chain issues, largely as a result of Covid and lockdowns and also energy (gas) prices.

The current pressure on consumables is down to that rather than printing money.

Tszii
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Posted: Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:31 pm

I dont see how the fed raises rates beyond 2-2.5%. We just hit 30 trillion in debt. At 5% percent were looking at 1.5 trillion of interest payments per year, nothing to principal. And most of our debt is still on 1-3 year notes; basically we are taking teaser rates to make the balance sheet look better. I think we are in for years of inflation of 4%+ for years, a decade or more.

I base all of this on years of playing video games.

mbassoc2003
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Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2022 4:56 am

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Well there are multiple causes of inflation.

If you mean, there are multiple government mechanisms designed to increase the money supply, then technically, yes. But the ONLY entity that can increase the money supply, and the only entity that can create inflation is Central Government.

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Loose monetary policy through quantitative easing and low interest rates undoubtedly has caused asset inflation.

No they do not. Money printing only inflates the money supply. Low interest create liquidity and remove the incentive to save.
Assets only increase in value as a result of an increase in utility.
A house becomes more valuable as a result of an additional bedroom, or proximity to new employer opening in the neighbourhood.
Lumber on your land only becomes more valuable as a result of a greater need to burn lumber or a greater demand for lumber.
Your Signed 1st Print Alpha PHB only becomes more valuable as a result of an increase in scarcity, or an increase in the need for non-depreciating assets in which to store value.
The value of something is not its sale price in currency. The sale price is a reflection BOTH the increase or decrease in value, and the increase of decrease in money supply.
Not being able to distinguish between a currency and an asset is the error, if one does not how they operate.

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:But a lot of the current issues we are seeing are caused by supply chain issues, largely as a result of Covid and lockdowns and also energy (gas) prices.

The current pressure on consumables is down to that rather than printing money.[/quote]
I disagree. I can see that they are clouding the issue and are a useful distractions to obscure what is actually happening in the economy. What you are effectively saying is that is goods moved freely and Covid had never existed, and we were all working as normal, and the government had decided to print and give away hundreds of billions, then there would be no corresponding loss of value in the currency. Prices would largely have just stayed the same and everyone would just be richer.
If that were true, then why not just print trillions and make everyone in your country a millionaire?
I would suggest these are a direct result of inflation of the money supply and those who possess and sell real assets are already pricing in the changes, but I do see the exception in the UK gas market, where the value of gas has increased due to the demand remaining and the supply being removed. I suspect in that case people will learn to wear jumpers and socks indoors again in the UK.

This week I've been mostly eating . . . The white ones with the little red flecks in them.

Last edited by mbassoc2003 on Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

mbassoc2003
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Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:10 am

Tszii wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:I dont see how the fed raises rates beyond 2-2.5%. We just hit 30 trillion in debt. At 5% percent were looking at 1.5 trillion of interest payments per year, nothing to principal. And most of our debt is still on 1-3 year notes; basically we are taking teaser rates to make the balance sheet look better. I think we are in for years of inflation of 4%+ for years, a decade or more.

I base all of this on years of playing video games.

The US has only three option as I see it...
1. Default, either through inflation (print an infinite quantity of money) or outright refusal to pay.
2. Eliminate the wasteful spending and spend only what must be spent - Delete all social welfare and armaments spending relinquish control of the world economy to the Eastern block.
3. Go to war and destroy the worlds economies for the next two decades.

I don't think they can do the first, but I suspect they'll give it a try for the next five years or so, but they'll need an out when they finally accept that it will not work. It's the morally bankrupt option so it is in keeping.
I don't think they have the balls or the backbone to do the second. It is the moral thing to do. It will work if creditor nations see that they are intent of making it work, and it is also in keeping with the country's founding principles of work hard and look after yourself and your neighbours.
I suspect America will go to war with the world and blame everyone else for it. Either now, or when it becomes obvious to the public that they are going to have to loose 50% of their standard of living and most of the benefits they believe they are 'entitled' to.
The world has gone to war in the first quarter of every century for the past seven I believe? So this is the first where we don't if we get to 2025.

This week I've been mostly eating . . . The white ones with the little red flecks in them.

Sardan
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Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:51 am

mbassoc2003 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:If you mean, there are multiple government mechanisms designed to increase the money supply, then technically, yes. But the ONLY entity that can increase the money supply, and the only entity that can create inflation is Central Government.

No they do not. Money printing only inflates the money supply. Low interest create liquidity and remove the incentive to save.
Assets only increase in value as a result of an increase in utility.

I would argue that increasing the money supply has increased asset prices.

mbassoc2003 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:
A house becomes more valuable as a result of an additional bedroom, or proximity to new employer opening in the neighbourhood.
Lumber on your land only becomes more valuable as a result of a greater need to burn lumber or a greater demand for lumber.
Your Signed 1st Print Alpha PHB only becomes more valuable as a result of an increase in scarcity, or an increase in the need for non-depreciating assets in which to store value.
The value of something is not its sale price in currency. The sale price is a reflection BOTH the increase or decrease in value, and the increase of decrease in money supply.
Not being able to distinguish between a currency and an asset is the error, if one does not how they operate.

I think an increase in house prices and collectibles like PHBs is an observable fact of the loose monetary era. I assume you accept that?

If so we are arguing about what has caused those price increases. I would argue that loose monetary policy is a key factor. I’m not sure what you are saying.

mbassoc2003 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:

I disagree. I can see that they are clouding the issue and are a useful distractions to obscure what is actually happening in the economy. What you are effectively saying is that is goods moved freely and Covid had never existed, and we were all working as normal, and the government had decided to print and give away hundreds of billions, then there would be no corresponding loss of value in the currency. Prices would largely have just stayed the same and everyone would just be richer.

I am not saying that QE and low interest rates don’t affect prices, they do and clearly have done on many asset classes, but it is curious that inflation was relatively low throughout the period of near zero interest rates and monetary policy. Only now has inflation significantly increased.

Not everyone has got richer but the rich, and those with significant assets have done.

mbassoc2003
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Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:59 am

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:I would argue that increasing the money supply has increased asset prices.

Exactly. Spot on. The amount of money you have to pay to buy an asset has gone up.
But has the asset increased in value? No. The value of your money has gone down, so you have to pay more of it to buy an asset?
There is a fundamental difference between 'value' and 'price', something which a lot of people are going to have to learn real soon.

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:I think an increase in house prices and collectibles like PHBs is an observable fact of the loose monetary era. I assume you accept that?

Yep.

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:If so we are arguing about what has caused those price increases. I would argue that loose monetary policy is a key factor. I’m not sure what you are saying.

I agree. Inflation of the money lowers the value of money, and therefor pushes up asset prices. Its been happening for 14 years or so. It's what keeps the stock market going up. The only difference is that it has been drastically accelerated over the past 18 months. Something like 75% of all currency in existence has been created in the past two years alone. Most of that in exchange for no value. So there will be an average corresponding 75% reduction in the standard of living for most people. Politically they may try to move the pain to other countries, but it will happen. The devaluation of the currency has already occurred. The only thing that hasn't happened yet is the consequential lowering of living standards. Of course, if we have a big war bomb the F out of metropolitan areas, destroy food distribution, place everyone of rations, and switch off their gas and electricity, then we get a 75% reduction in living standards, but we can point to the necessity and consequence of war as being the root cause. The masses will go with what there televisions tell them because it is easier to do that than learn difference between 'value' and 'price', and you cannot blame a government for war, but only a government can be blamed for inflation.

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:I am not saying that QE and low interest rates don’t affect prices, they do and clearly have done on many asset classes, but it is curious that inflation was relatively low throughout the period of near zero interest rates and monetary policy. Only now has inflation significantly increased.

Is that based on Government Statistics of real life examples? I bought a three bedroom house in 2008 for £37.5K which last sold for £110K. The house isn't any bigger, doesn't have a bigger garden, hasn't moved closer to the city centre, etc. It has had a new kitchen, but not a £70K kitchen. So the underlying value has remained the same, but the price of the asset has increased at about 8% a year, in a period where the government say the inflation rate has been at 2%. I could draw similar comparisons in my weekly food bill, the cost of eating at a restaurant, the cost of buying a car, the cost of buying many of the Non-TSR D&D items I used to collect, the cost of buying a mobile phone. Are any of them increasing at less that 2% a year? Are any of them increasing at less than 5% a year? I very much doubt there is anyone who used to spend £60 on a weekly shop who is now getting the same quality and quantity for £80 (which is 2% annualized). Real life loss of purchasing power in the currency is substantially higher than the Government says it is for most people. The only exception I can find is fuel costs which have only risen by 1.6% at the pump on aver age over those 14 years. It stands to reason that fuel costs are in someway factored into the cost of buying food and clothing, so fuel costs have taken the edge off of increases in prices in the stores to some degree.

Sardan wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Not everyone has got richer but the rich, and those with significant assets have done.

That's because the vast majority of people do not know the difference between 'value' and 'price'. Nor do they know the difference between 'asset' and 'liability', and less than 1 in 3 save anything at all out of what they earn. They literally spend their entire lives working to make sure other people get rich?! Why? The rich are not dumb and they work. It seems to be a winning formula to learn the right things and work hard at them. I wish I'd known that when I was 16.

This week I've been mostly eating . . . The white ones with the little red flecks in them.

Tszii
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Posted: Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:33 pm

mbassoc2003 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:The US has only three option as I see it...
1. Default, either through inflation (print an infinite quantity of money) or outright refusal to pay.
2. Eliminate the wasteful spending and spend only what must be spent - Delete all social welfare and armaments spending relinquish control of the world economy to the Eastern block.
3. Go to war and destroy the worlds economies for the next two decades.

I don't think they can do the first, but I suspect they'll give it a try for the next five years or so, but they'll need an out when they finally accept that it will not work. It's the morally bankrupt option so it is in keeping.
I don't think they have the balls or the backbone to do the second. It is the moral thing to do. It will work if creditor nations see that they are intent of making it work, and it is also in keeping with the country's founding principles of work hard and look after yourself and your neighbours.
I suspect America will go to war with the world and blame everyone else for it. Either now, or when it becomes obvious to the public that they are going to have to loose 50% of their standard of living and most of the benefits they believe they are 'entitled' to.
The world has gone to war in the first quarter of every century for the past seven I believe? So this is the first where we don't if we get to 2025.

1. Over half our debt is IOUs for Social Security, Medicare, federal pensions etc. Not paying is another way of saying cutting these programs. This wont happen as long as people can vote which is not in danger.
2. See 1.
3. I commonly kick myself for not being cynical enough, but Ill risk it here. No one wants war. It would make things worse, not better. Frankly, we are likely going to avoid conflicts we shouldnt; to avoid the costs. Ukraine, Belarus; what about Poland? Sorry, so sorry. Lets not pretend like these nations could have funded a military strong enough to stop Russia. And lets not pretend like the world hasnt hazed the USA about maintaining a silly large military for years.

The USA didnt live up to its agreement with Ukraine. Is that it? One and done? Just this once? We will never break our word again? Of course not. The USA always does the right thing. After trying everything else first.

mbassoc2003
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Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:10 am

If 75% of all currency in circulation has been created in the past two years in exchange for zero value, then there is an unavoidable consequence to that.
The world's currencies are only worth 25% of their value 2 years ago.
The value of real things hasn't gone away. But the quantity of available money to buy them has quadrupled.

So now the world has to apportion that 75% loss in lifestyle.
The rich already knew this was coming and positioned themselves for a net gain. So the reduction in lifestyle by those who did not is more like 90% spread over the coming years.
For most people a 75% reduction is living standard for a generation or two is survivable. So all the governments of the world need to do is tell the sheep what they need to know in that moment to keep them calm, and baby them through increasingly difficult lives with a combinations of reassuring platitudes and aggressive punishment.

I have the luxury of not having 'suffered' through Covid on account of seeing the government responses coming and being prepared. The impact on my life was virtually nil. Arguably I'm richer because I don't now pay for my commutes. But I know many people who were scathing about the possibilities of a pandemic, even as China locked down an area the size of Europe. Who thought there was no way they would be locked in their homes even as China was welding doors shut, and dumping mounds of earth outside stairways. Who couldn't possibly imagine they'd not be able to go on holiday or go to the pub (bar) because our government said the lockdown was 'only for a couple of weeks'. Who thought Christmas would be fine because the government said they'd never keep people locked down at Christmas. Who thought Covid Passports would never be compulsory in public because the Government said categorically they would never exist - This is how stupid people really are in the UK.

Right at the beginning of Covid, all the UK Governments came out and said people needed to get used to 'the new normal'. What part of the phrase 'the new normal' did people not understand? Which word was difficult for them to understand. People in the UK do not understand the difference between 'truth' and 'lie', they are literally that stupid as en mass, and they are very controllable as a result.

So why would they ever believe that inflation is not going to happen having accepted free handouts for 18 moths?
We follow the leaders we deserve.

In the UK I see a lot of starvation coming. Next winter is gonna be a huge sales opportunity for blankets, jumpers, socks and anything that can mitigate the cold. SO there's a lot of money to be made, and whilst everyone can pretend they had no way of knowing what is going to happen could happen, I'd suggest that this was predictable more than a decade ago, and definitely predictable in April 2020. Yet, in two years time we'll still have televisions in the UK full of whining whingers and bleeding hearts, and 'educated' people mocking those who tell the public what is going to happen as scaremongering.

Don't be silly. It won't ever happen. The Government says everything will be fine, and the experts on TV agree. They have nothing to gain by lying to you.

This week I've been mostly eating . . . The white ones with the little red flecks in them.

Deadlord
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Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:29 pm

One thing to keep in mind about US debt: A large amount of it we owe to ourselves, by borrowing from internal programs. So the interest stays in-house.

If you hit a Rowsdower, you get to keep it.

shadeun
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Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:54 pm

The amount of money in circluation as a point estimate is not equivalent to the amount that can be spent over time.

The velocity of money matters, required reserve ratios etc. etc. but really, as banks lend out almost all the money you deposit in them, the amount to spend is many mutliples of what is in circulation.

Likewise, money injected through (say) FOMC open market operations doesnt necessarily add singificant amounts to that floating around the economy (think about all the 'potential cash' floating in peoples 401ks or ISAs or Superannuation funds - that if instantaneously liquidated would flood the world with cash).

Obviously, they went overboard with stiumulus but expecting that your purchasing power will be degraded by 75% is ridiculous.

The Volker years // the 80's taught us that the prime directive is to raise rates when inflation goes bananas.

Hence why rates are going to go up 1-3% this year.

Thats going to hurt non-cash generating assets a heap.

Peoples retirment portolio allocations will change a lot when they can be in non-risky cash-bearing assets rather than more speculative ones.

That being said, I'm not selling a fuck'n thing man.
https://youtu.be/H3CByTxMTNM?t=289

killjoy32
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Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2022 6:10 pm

Hello excellent friends, one and all. Havent been on here in years!!

I hope you are all very well and life is treating you all good?

I was watching the art of tsr documentary on youtube, saw my good buddy Tim Kask and had to come say hi :-)

I was looking for something the other day, and in a random box (which didnt have what i was looking for), i came across 2 of my favorite items, which i just had to share. Brought back fantastic memories of GenCon back in 2007 and 2008.

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Are we nearly there yet?

Plaag
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Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:41 pm

Holy ****
Killjoy!

I'm doing good.
You still running?

ShaneG.

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aia
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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:07 am

Wow!!! Welcome back Killjoy!!!

killjoy32
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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:27 am

Hey chaps!

I had my knee reconstructed, so not much running now....older age and all that.

Life is diddling along as it does. Dont collect anymore but have very fond memories of the fun at gencon and mike n dougs gig down in texas. Great memories forever.

So whats new these days? Havent paid attention for years haha

Are we nearly there yet?

Skullhammer
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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 7:19 am

killjoy32 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Hey chaps!

I had my knee reconstructed, so not much running now....older age and all that.

Life is diddling along as it does. Dont collect anymore but have very fond memories of the fun at gencon and mike n dougs gig down in texas. Great memories forever.

So whats new these days? Havent paid attention for years haha

Prices. You could buy a mid-sized luxury sedan for what you’ll spend on a rare item of interest, lol

benjoshua
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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:39 am

killjoy32 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Hello excellent friends, one and all. Havent been on here in years!!

I hope you are all very well and life is treating you all good?

I was watching the art of tsr documentary on youtube, saw my good buddy Tim Kask and had to come say hi

I was looking for something the other day, and in a random box (which didnt have what i was looking for), i came across 2 of my favorite items, which i just had to share. Brought back fantastic memories of GenCon back in 2007 and 2008.

Welcome back!!

Truth is worth finding and life is too short to work for money.

benjoshua
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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:48 am

My wife and I recently returned from a trip to the Galapagos Islands! As a biology major, I'd always wanted to visit there, and the reality beat my expectations. 97% of the islands are undeveloped, and it was like traveling back in time. Many of the creatures, like the marine iguanas, rays, sharks and giant tortoises, had a prehistoric look to them. My favorite activity was snorkeling, which we did almost every day. I was fortunate enough to swim just a few feet away from a eight foot long hammerhead, a truly awe inspiring site. Trips like these give me an appreciation for different and unusual worlds. The experience will be helpful when I run adventures like Isle of Dread, for example.

Truth is worth finding and life is too short to work for money.

chromaticknight
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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:47 pm

killjoy32 wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:Hello excellent friends, one and all. Havent been on here in years!!

I hope you are all very well and life is treating you all good?

I was watching the art of tsr documentary on youtube, saw my good buddy Tim Kask and had to come say hi

I was looking for something the other day, and in a random box (which didnt have what i was looking for), i came across 2 of my favorite items, which i just had to share. Brought back fantastic memories of GenCon back in 2007 and 2008.

Welcome back Killjoy!

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