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What will the industry look like in 5 years?
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Post Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 2:13 pm 
 

I think game will go the route of the MMO, but not as we know it.  More like the way they were intending the DDi Virtual Game Table will be.  Millions (thosands) of players around the world will be able to log into a virtual environmnet and go in one of two directions: tabletop mode or adventurer mode.  In tabletop mode, you find a game, either by filling in a spot in someone else's table or you go to a prescheduled table to game with friends.  In the adventurer mode, you play a game similar to WoW, but much less refined, with official game content, as well as user-created content.  Eh, I've thought about this for a while.   :P

Within five years, I hope 4e fails.  I think the spirit of the game, which had turned the corner with 3e is all the way down the street and out of sight in 4e.  I hope either Wizards, or another company that buys the rights to D&D, restores it to its former glory.

GenCon 2013 will be there, but I cannot envision what it would be like, especially if 4e is still hobbling along.

  

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Post Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:30 am 
 

deimos3428 wrote:In five years time, the game will become recursive:

Customers will line up to subscribe to a fun new online game where you take the role of a 1980s teenage role-playing geek sitting around a table with his friends.

In ten years time, the game become self-aware.

The AIDM (Artificial Intelligence Dungeon Master) Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th. Human decisions are removed from the game.  AIDM begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.


And after trying to pull the plug, thinking that the AIDM gets its power from solar energy, the humans will blot out the sun and live underground.

Then they will wait for the day that the chosen one will return, and restore balance to the world...

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Post Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:49 pm 
 

Invincible Overlord wrote:
And after trying to pull the plug, thinking that the AIDM gets its power from solar energy, the humans will blot out the sun and live underground.

Then they will wait for the day that the chosen one will return, and restore balance to the world...


BUT, will he take the blue pill, or the red pill? :?:


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Post Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:26 pm 
 

I went walkabout today (well, I took a hastily-planned driveabout) to see what some gamestores in the Dallas-Fort Worth region look like.

In an attempt to provide method to my madness, I picked some stores through the Wizards of the Coast search engine and the Crystal Caste vendors page.  I figured that those stores would be a good place to look for current if not older/used RPGs.  I did some Googling for game stores/dice/comics.  I also found a site called Platial.com, but that's another story.

Anyway, from my trips today and earlier this month, I can safely say that the Wizards search engine and the Crystal Caste vendors page are not entirely accurate.  Stores at those locations, if they still exist, may have a vendor account, but many do not promote RPGs as much as one would think.  One store had two 4E rulebooks.  Ummm . . . yeah.

Here are the legitimate gamestores near DFW that I found.  I am leaving out the Lone Star Comics chain, as they are the 800-pound gorilla of DFW.  I am leaving out the Keith's Comics chain because they are mainly comics.

Comics and Games:
- Y2Komics (Fort Worth)
- Comics Asylum (Garland)
- GenX (Bedford)
- Cosmic Comics (Grapevine)

Games, No Comics:
- Game Closet (Waco)
- The Comic Boxxx (Cleburne)
- Fantasy Quest (Sherman)
- Game Chest (Dallas)

I don't know what other Acaeum members have found, but Magic and other CCGs seem to draw in the players.  Some of the above stores have 4E or D&D nights, but they aren't as advertised as their Magic/CCG tournaments.  The two CCG tournaments that I saw today had plenty of players.
g026r wrote:Granted, the biggest problem with relying on store-owners is for these sorts of things is that a lot of their traditional business has transferred to Amazon and the like.

Has everyone written-off the FLGS? I'm not sure if I am making a point, but getting RPGs to be played in stores by a large number of people on a frequent and regular basis will keep the hobby alive.  Amazon can't do that.  Amazon can only provide low prices, which FLGS can also do.  Gamestores can get teens/young adults to play, sell them dice and swag, and promote, promote, promote.  Does the RPGA still exist?  Do they hold in-store events?  Game stores are dying out, and only CCGs and/or comics seem to keep them alive now.  One-offs like Worldwide D&D Day and convention games only preach to the converted.

  

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Post Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 12:03 am 
 

Wow - I think you have more games stores in your local area than there are in the whole of the UK!

(Ok, this is an exageration, but not as much of one as you might think!!)


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Post Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:42 am 
 

I don't know what other Acaeum members have found, but Magic and other CCGs seem to draw in the players. Some of the above stores have 4E or D&D nights, but they aren't as advertised as their Magic/CCG tournaments. The two CCG tournaments that I saw today had plenty of players.


Stores make the rent from CCG's and video games. In order to get a deal from WOTC you need to have a storefront. I'd guess that a lot of stores buy the D&D and have a deal with an Ebay vendor to move the product. In order to sell enough books Vs cards you'd need a serious group of players in the area (who actually buy from the store). I have been down this road and it basically boils down to the person that owns the storefront will lose $$$ and go out. You need a storefront though to get discounted product. WOTC reps will come and see if you have a storefront. So, the store is a loss in itself but you're able to get enough product to make income via online(IF ONLY YOU DIDN'T HAVE TO PAY RENT). You need a lot of $$$ to operate out here and the guy I know who does the best will buy a failing store and use that front to get loads of product via distributors. Then he makes his $$$ and sells the store to another buyer. He has a deal with the buyer where he gets to order all the product he wants. The new buyer lasts a short time and goes under and then he just buys another store and repeats... Until a buyer is found one of us will usually operate the store. It's always a loss. Sometimes some great stuff will visit the store like old collections and whatnot but the RPG games just don't sell like cards do.




Wow - I think you have more games stores in your local area than there are in the whole of the UK!

I visited the UK when I was a teen in the 80s and it seemed like there was a game store on every block. We took the trains all over the place and there were stores wherever we went. Shame...

  

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Post Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:07 pm 
 

Tharizdun wrote:I visited the UK when I was a teen in the 80s and it seemed like there was a game store on every block. We took the trains all over the place and there were stores wherever we went. Shame...


yep - Oh how I miss the 80's (and my youth in general 8O  :D )


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Post Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:31 pm 
 

Tharizdun wrote:Stores make the rent from CCG's and video games. In order to get a deal from WOTC you need to have a storefront. I'd guess that a lot of stores buy the D&D and have a deal with an Ebay vendor to move the product.

And that perpetuates the problem of the FLGS not being a destination.  Or it neatly sidesteps it by assuming that RPGs can not support a store and makes RPGs invisible to the customer.

I agree that any store not selling CCGs and video games is not in business for long.  Does that mean that RPGs will always be a money-losing proposition?

  


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Post Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 10:15 pm 
 

What my "friend" does is he will take special orders on the RPG's and miniatures stuff. Especially the big miniatures things like those big Star Wars minis. As soon as the stuff hits the store, the cases are opened and all those things are moved out. A person that goes to the store would never even know he bought anything like that. The trouble with putting that on the shelves is that you already have a lot of minis and whatnot (Wizkids stuff) and tons of stuff that never sold from before. Why replace it with new stuff that wont sell. After that 1st few days when the people who are looking for a certain item passes then the stuff doesn't sell. The window is really small because of Ebay dealers. Most stores will attempt to do the RPG stuff but then it just doesn't make sense to invest in something that sells less than CCG stuff. Board games move but that's another matter.
FLGS Rpg sellers are also competing with B&N, Borders... There is just no way you can make enough $$$ to compete with big stores and Ebay, NK, TT. You can mark the prices down but you wont sell any more to justify doing so. It's really just a loss. So, you get all the cards you can from the distributors and on the side you find some online vendors (these guys can usually be found at the Cons) and work out a deal with them. You make a few extra bucks and move all your RPG stuff Minis... and don't worry about the hassle. Rent is just too much (in the West at least). There's room for specialty sellers but how many rare RPG dealers can there be? Stores and dealers are cannibalizing one another so badly right now... You need a massive amount of $$$ to get into the game. You need to be able to buy 1000's of boxes of MTG, Warcraft type of games in order to really make any money. You will make money but then what do you do if a game goes under or you get a set that sucks or something? Then you need to be able to ride out the storm.. You also wind up flooding the market with stuff and usually you see stuff selling for a loss. This really hurts the FLGS. I think that RPG's and everything will survive (I hope so) but what were going to see is the end of the FLGS. Comics got it bad as well. Maybe some type of hybrid stores will come out of everything. That's my 3 cents :wink:

  


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Post Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 10:48 pm 
 

TSR was bought by guys who really did love TSR games. Those guys are no longer in the picture...

WOTC has been restructured many times. Now you have Hasbro which is stuck with a wonderful intellectual property in D&D but I don't think anyone knows what to do with it. Everything seems to backfire. The movies have been bad. The online MMORPG isn't doing so well. I'd guess that the novel lines are the most profitable thing they have going. The reprints probably sell more than the new stuff. So, what do they do? MTG is still a monster. I think it's also being run kinda aimlessly but as long as they print cards they make $$$. So, they figure they will do the same with D&D. The hardcovers make the most $$$. I dunno what else really sells that well? I'm sure there's plenty of stuff that does sell overall but it's all a drop in the buckett compared to whatever MTG did last weekend.
The new books look radically different. I think they're all over the place in what they want to be doing. They have a lot of firings and purgings happening at WOTC pretty frequently so I'd imagine that no-one wants to be the guy that F'd up. I think the bottom line for Hasbro is that they don't really care either way about D&D except that they would rather not let it go and have someone else be successful with it. WOTC probably pushed it and Hasbro went along since the CCG's do so well. It's a great intellectual property that's probably worth more than anyone will pay and WOTC/Hasbro really don't know what to do with it. The other stuff they do just makes more $$$.

  

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Post Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 11:44 am 
 

/on tangent...

I liked the second D&D movie (Dungeons & Dragons: Wrath of the Dragon God ).

Granted, it wasn't the epic-shattering movie like Lord of the Rings, but it did go back to it's basics IMHO (an actual balanced adventuring party). Although the references to the old modules were simply nods to old-timers like us, it was a nice touch to the movie.

/off tangent...

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 12:39 pm 
 

Looks like I wasn't all that far off with the automated DM thing. 8O

http://www.gamegrene.com/node/971

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 6:37 pm 
 

Just skimmed through that blog. Does that imply that D&D is formally becoming a computer game?

  

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 6:47 pm 
 

HermitFromPluto wrote:Just skimmed through that blog. Does that imply that D&D is formally becoming a computer game?

The blog posting is a comment upon the current state of D&D and MMORPGs like World of Warcraft (or City of Heroes or . . . )

The trend in D&D is to be more and more MMORPG-like.  The next logical step is forgoing the pen-and-paper and become a WoW clone.  This, of course, completely loses what pen-and-paper RPGs are.  But would players notice?

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 7:09 pm 
 

JohnGaunt wrote:The blog posting is a comment upon the current state of D&D and MMORPGs like World of Warcraft (or City of Heroes or . . . )

The trend in D&D is to be more and more MMORPG-like.  The next logical step is forgoing the pen-and-paper and become a WoW clone.  This, of course, completely loses what pen-and-paper RPGs are.  But would players notice?


I guess then it will draw in the current generation of MMORPG players - but I imagine few of them have really experienced pen and paper RPGs.

The fun lies in the interaction between players and DM, the jokes, the limitless scenarios ... something MMORPGs lack completely.

Depressing really. I guess many of the more traditional gamers will turn to the small companies putting out old style D&D supplements. But the next generation of D&D5E players may never know what it was originally about. All are being turned into automatons.

I have just started playing D&D with my children. They play computer games - but remarkably they absolutely loved the traditional D&D (U1 Sinister Secret of Saltmarsh). After our first session, they couldn't stop talking about it for days. Way healthier I thought than the limiting computer games they are used to.

Perhaps we should have an Acaeum stall at some of the big computer game expos with sign above 'Imagination without limit'

  

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 8:37 pm 
 

Hear, hear, Jeremy.

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"Imagination without limit."

I like it.


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 8:48 pm 
 

+1 :) :)
better than products of your imagination as implies need to have one first before enjoying rather than develop as go along ;) ;)

  

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Post Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:09 am 
 

deimos3428 wrote:Looks like I wasn't all that far off with the automated DM thing. 8O

http://www.gamegrene.com/node/971



And I looked at my calendar just to make sure it wasn't April 1st...

... dear god...

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